At some point will there be an event, quite unexpected (Black Swan), that will lead to the breakup of the US? Certainly. Of course when and what this event might be is quite unpredictable and will probably not be recognized until well after the fact.
I say "certainly" because no matter how unlikely an event is it will occur if you wait long enough.
Considering the building racist reaction in many parts of the country to Obama's election, I wonder if that might have been the trigger. We won't know for some time.
If it is the trigger, will the majority on either side of such a division care? I wonder. Since the belief systems in place in different parts of the country have been made so readily apparent through the Internet and are so incompatible, secular versus sectarian for example, I suspect that each side will feel relief to be ride of the other.
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